The Dollar Just Hit A 13-Month High On Warsh's Hawkish Debut: History Says Don't Fade It

Kevin Warsh‘s hawkish debut as Federal Reserve Chair revived one of the market’s most reliable plays — going long the dollar when the central bank looks ready to hike interest rates.
The U.S. Dollar Index – as tracked by the Invesco DB U.S. Dollar Index Bullish Fund (NYSE:UUP) – rose 0.8% to above 100.15 on Thursday, its highest level since May 2025 and the cap on a roughly 13-month climb.
The move followed a Federal Open Market Committee meeting that broke sharply with March. Nine of the 19 participants penciled in a rate hike this year, and the median projection now puts the federal funds rate at 3.8% by the end of 2026, up from 3.4% three months earlier.
Inflation forecasts were lifted hard. The committee sees personal consumption expenditures inflation running at 3.6% this year, with c