Fed Meeting Preview: Powell's Last Hawkish Stand?

With inflation heating up, growth holding firm and markets dialing back rate cut bets, the Federal Reserve heads into its April meeting under pressure for what is likely to be Chair Jerome Powell‘s last press conference.
Fed funds futures price a 100% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee leaves rates at 3.50%–3.75% on Wednesday  and the first meeting where a cut becomes more likely than a hold doesn’t appear until October 2027.
Even by December 2026, markets assign only a 26% probability to a 25-basis-point easing as per Polymarket.
In short, the base case is no cuts for all of 2026.
That is a complete reversal from more than three cuts penciled before the war in Iran.

Powell’s Last Presser As Chair As Warsh Looms
Earlier this week, the Department of Justice dropped its inv