Fed's Warsh Day: What History Says Comes Next To The S&P 500

Kevin Warsh makes his debut at the helm of the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, as the central bank wraps a policy meeting with markets broadly expecting rates to stay on hold at 3.50%-3.75%.
While all eyes are on what Warsh says in his first press conference — and on how Fed officials reshape the dot plot against a backdrop of stickier inflation and the war in Iran — there’s another question worth asking: How has the S&P 500 historically performed once a new Fed Chair takes over?
The last seven leadership handovers since 1970 are shown below, each paired with the market’s forward 1-month, 3-month, 6-month and 12-month returns.




Fed Chair
Start
S&P 500’s return after 1 month
+3 months
+6 months
+12 months




Burns
Feb 1, 1970
+4.6%
-5.0%
-10.2%
+12.4%


Miller
Mar 8, 1978
+3.0%
+14.1%
+21