Geopolitics
Iran war fallout raises odds of a U.S. recession, economists say
Economists say the conflict in Iran is making a recession more likely, with higher energy prices hitting consumers and businesses.
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Latest on U.s. recession
Newest firstMacro
Treasury Secretary Bessent says there won't be a US recession in 2026: 'Very, very optimistic'
Bessent added that Americans will feel relief next year as Trump's tariffs, trade deals and "big, beautiful bill" set in.
Macro
Barclays says a U.S. recession is increasingly likely, so underweight 'risk assets'
Hard economic data could deteriorate from here, pointing to a brewing U.S. recession, said Barclays.
Macro
Economists share where they look for clues that a U.S. recession could be coming
Tariffs are going to hit the economy hard, but a serious downturn is not inevitable, economists say.
Macro
Kalshi traders place the odds of US recession in 2025 at over 61%
. . Traders on the Kalshi prediction market place the odds of a US recession in 2025 at 61%, following the sweeping tariff order signed by President Donald Tru…
Macro
El-Erian says U.S. recession risks are now 'uncomfortably high'
"If the U.S. slows down, the rest of the world will slow down more," the veteran economist warned.
Finance
Goldman Sachs raises probability of a U.S. recession to 35%
Goldman Sachs raised the probability of a U.S. recession to 35%, up from 20%. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, talks with NPR's Michel Martin…
Macro
US recession 40% likely in 2025, what it means for crypto - Analyst
. . The United States has a 40% chance of a recession in 2025 amid the potential for a protracted trade war and macroeconomic uncertainty, according to market…
Crypto
US recession would be a big catalyst for Bitcoin: BlackRock
. . BlackRock's head of digital assets, Robbie Mitchnick, says that Bitcoin will most likely thrive in a recessionary macro environment, contrary to what some…
Macro
Tariffs have raised the probability of a U.S. recession to around 35%: Pimco
There is a "maybe 35% probability" that the U.S. will enter a recession this year, says Alec Kersman, managing director and head of Asia-Pacific at Pimco.
Geopolitics
Why 'Trump Turmoil' has made a U.S. recession much more likely
Instead of rapid-fire trade deals, Trump has triggered a trade war.
