January–March 2026
Markets price the upcoming Fed leadership change as soon as the year opens.
Jerome Powell’s term expiration becomes a live macro variable, not a footnote.
FOMC meetings in January and March reinforce a softer tone even if rates don’t move.
Equities respond more to language than data.
Oil drifts lower as inventories stay high and OPEC supply discipline weakens.
Tone: cautious optimism driven by expectation, not reality.
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April–June 2026
The Fed transition process becomes explicit: nominees, confirmation chatter, leaks.
Markets recalibrate when it’s clear rate cuts will be gradual, not aggressive.
Treasury auctions reflect higher sensitivity to debt servicing costs.
Housing stabilizes but affordability remains tight.
G7 and global central bank meetings reinforce divergence rather than coordination.
Tone: uncertainty replaces hope.
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July–September 2026
Midterm election campaigns peak and dominate media.
Policy rhetoric intensifies without legislative follow-through.
Markets largely ignore campaign promises and focus on earnings and liquidity.
Oil sees temporary spikes tied to geopolitics, then fades back to surplus pricing.
Labor data weakens at the margins but avoids collapse.
Tone: loud politics, quiet markets.
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October–November 2026
Midterm elections drive short-term volatility.
Markets hedge into the vote, then rally on clarity regardless of outcome.
Gridlock becomes the assumed policy regime.
Fiscal expansion expectations are capped by debt math.
Tone: tension followed by relief.
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December 2026
Rates finish the year lower than they started, but not low enough to restart a boom.
Asset prices reflect acceptance of slower growth.
Oil ends the year range-bound, confirming energy is no longer the inflation driver.
Investors who avoided narratives outperform those who chased momentum.
Tone: resignation turning into discipline.
