SCOTUS rules Trump’s tariffs are illegal — but the fight is far from over

The U.S. Supreme Court has invalidated some of President Trump's tariffs enacted under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), marking a significant shift in trade policy. However, other tariffs, such as those on steel and aluminum, remain unaffected. Trump's reaction suggests a continuation of aggressive trade policies, potentially under different legal frameworks. This decision introduces uncertainties in the trade sector, particularly affecting importers, small businesses, and consumers who have faced increased costs due to these tariffs. There is also significant concern regarding the potential bureaucratic challenges and delays in refunding the tariffs, with estimates suggesting that refund requests could total $120 billion.

**Key Market Implications:**
- **Trade Uncertainty:** Continued aggressive tariff policies by Trump are likely, sustaining uncertainty within international trade markets.
- **Impact on Importers and Small Businesses:** Due to the Supreme Court's decision, businesses that paid tariffs under the IEEPA may face lengthy and complex processes to secure refunds, impacting their financial stability.
- **Consumer Prices:** Tariffs often lead to higher costs for consumers; the ruling may not alleviate this, as businesses may not lower prices proportionally even if tariffs are refunded.
- **Market Volatility:** The ongoing legal and political battles over tariffs could lead to unpredictable fluctuations in market sectors dependent on imported goods and materials.
- **Potential Shifts in Supply Chains:** Businesses might reconsider their supply chain strategies to mitigate risks associated with tariff impositions, potentially affecting global trade patterns.