The Biggest Supply Shock Ever – And Goldman Just Raised Oil Price Forecasts

The U.S.-Iran war has delivered what Goldman Sachs now sees as the largest oil supply shock on record.
Persian Gulf exports, as tracked by vessel count data, have fallen to roughly 3% of normal levels at the Strait of Hormuz — a disruption that dwarfs even the 1973 OPEC embargo and the 1990 Gulf War in terms of the immediate hit to flows.
Goldman’s commodity research team, led by analyst Daan Struyven, upgraded its Brent crude price forecast on Wednesday, citing a longer assumed disruption and a more complex global policy response than their initial models projected.
“Our commodity strategists now expect Brent to average $98 in March and April—up 40% from the 2025 average— before falling back to $71 by 2026 Q4,” Goldman Sachs said.
On Thursday morning, front-month futures on the West Tex