The Oil Shock Hit. The Treasury Shock Is Coming, This Chart Warns

Something is badly mispriced in the bond market, and almost nobody is talking about it.
WTI crude rallied to $99 on Friday — on track to close at the highest level since July 2022. The 2-Year Treasury yield, one of the most reliable real-time gauges of Federal Reserve interest rates, is at 3.92%.
The last time oil traded at these levels, the 2-Year was above 5%.
Today, there is roughly a 100-basis-point gap between the current yield and where recent history suggests it should be.

Everyone’s Watching Oil. The 2-Year Yield Is The Real Threat.
John Roque, technical analyst at 22V Research, flagged the divergence in a note published this week
His argument is pointed: oil is getting all the attention, but the 2-Year yield is the instrument that will ultimately do the most damage.
“Right now