Fed Minutes Warned Of Rate Hikes – Trump's Ceasefire Just Changed the Math

The Federal Reserve’s March meeting minutes landed on Wednesday with a message that had been building for weeks: the central bank was not ruling out rate hikes.
But the minutes were almost old news by the time they hit.
On Tuesday, President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran — and the very oil shock that had driven the Fed’s hawkish pivot began unwinding in real time.
What the Fed’s March Minutes Said
The March 17–18 minutes showed just how much the Middle East conflict had upended the Fed’s baseline outlook.
Front-month crude oil had surged roughly 50% over the intermeeting period, the one-year inflation swap had risen nearly 50 basis points, and the modal policy path — the most likely outcome implied by options markets — had shifted to no rate cut at all in 2026, up