What's Happening
Brent crude has breached the $100 per barrel threshold as the US and Iran trade military strikes for the 13th time. Trump has teased a "massive attack" bigger than previous responses, raising the stakes for further escalation in the Middle East.
Market Impact
Oil's surge is pressuring Asian equities and lifting borrowing costs globally. Energy stocks benefit, but consumers and manufacturers face margin compression; inflation expectations are rising across developed markets, complicating central bank policy.
Broader Implications
A sustained conflict could push crude toward $120+ and trigger stagflationary dynamics. Supply disruption risk is now a first-order macro variable, with implications for Fed policy, corporate earnings, and geopolitical realignment in the Gulf.
