Four-Year Bull Market Enters Danger Zone as Bond Yields Threaten AI-Driven Rally

What’s happening

The current stock market bull run reaches its fourth anniversary next week, a milestone historically associated with durability—but rising Treasury yields and energy price pressures are now testing that thesis. Tech stocks, which have anchored the entire rally on AI spending expectations, face headwinds from higher borrowing costs that compress valuations for growth-dependent companies.

Market impact

Bull markets past their fourth year rarely collapse, but this one's composition matters: concentration in mega-cap tech (Nvidia, Microsoft, Google) means yield shocks hit harder than in more diversified rallies. A 50-basis-point move higher in the 10-year could force significant rotation out of unprofitable AI plays into value and dividend stocks.

Broader implications

The Fed's terminal rate path and inflation persistence will determine whether this bull survives 2025. If yields stabilize, the rally extends; if they spike on sticky wage growth or geopolitical shocks, the AI narrative loses its tailwind and equity multiples compress sharply.